London Playbook PM: Crunk on Conservative catnip

Good afternoon.
— Migration stats and the words “free movement” livened up the Conservative leadership race.
— But Labour insists claims it’s mulling an EU visa scheme for 18-30s are wrong.
— GCSE results highlight big educational divides between regions and nations. The government is promising to do better.
— Three candidates made the ballot paper in the Scottish Conservative leadership contest, after a few last-minute machinations.
— A former Conservative MP let her successor get into her head. And vented on social media.
**A message from Google: Google’s Be Internet Legends programme helps children learn key online safety skills and offers fun interactive materials to help children be confident online explorers. This September 12th, you’re invited to join parents, teachers and students for our annual Back to School assembly, in partnership with Parent Zone. Learn more at go/beinternetlegends.**
GETTING CRUNK ON CONSERVATIVE CATNIP: Migration-related stats this morning — plus a headline in the Times containing the words “free movement” — stirred the soporific Conservative leadership campaign from its slumber.
The details: The number of work visas granted in the 12 months to June 2024 is down 11 percent (to 286,382) compared with the preceding 12 months, with a huge 26 percent drop in health and care worker visas (to 89,085.) Student visas were down 13 percent (to 432,000) and visas granted to family members of students are also down. The Home Office dropped the data at 9.30 a.m. including this illustrative graph. The Beeb has a writeup.
Can I get that on credit? “The actions I took as home secretary are working,” said Conservative leadership candidate James Cleverly — who changed numerous rules last December on worker and student visas. He added on Twitter: “When I said I was going to cut migration, I meant it.” It’s a solid line to take to the Conservative faithful — although immigration hit super high levels under the Tories despite Brexit.
Less clear cut … were the stats on asylum applications. The number of new appeals in the 12 months to June dropped 8 percent compared with the preceding 12 months, to 97,000. But the backlog of cases waiting to be resolved hasn’t moved much, standing at 118,882. The ebb and flow of the numbers suggest the Tories did begin tackling the backlog after Rishi Sunak became PM, but stopped again in the final months of the government as part of the Rwanda deportation plan, so the pile grew again.
Putting a spin on it: Cleverly said “the extra resource I put into the system meant more decisions, cutting the backlog, lower[ing the] grant rate, and more returns.”
But but but: Labour did some serious begging to differ. Immigration Minister Seema Malhotra said the numbers showed the “chaos the Tories left in our immigration and asylum system.” She added: “The asylum backlog has soared, costing the taxpayer billions. And the removal of foreign national offenders has dropped 20 percent since 2010. After 14 years, their record is one of failure and damaged public confidence.” And she added in a follow-up punch: “You chose gimmicks. We choose grip.”
But Malhotra steered clear of … the Times front page banner piece, headlined: “Free movement for the under-30s in reset of EU relations.” Cleverly jumped on it to argue Labour was “planning to roll over for the EU and open our borders” while leadership rival Priti Patel issued a full PDF press release in shock mode.
Staggering through the summer: “It is staggering that the Labour government are considering relaxing freedom of movement rules with the European Union, despite repeatedly ruling this out,” she fumed, adding that Keir Starmer is “not being straight with the public.”
The thing is … the detail of the Times piece describes a three-year visa scheme, which is, erm, not free movement. The online headline is much more nuanced: “Free movement curbs could be relaxed under EU reset.”
The other thing is … Labour is insisting no such scheme is on the table. “We’re not doing it,” one government official told Playbook PM. And the final line in the Times piece quotes a government spokesperson: “We are not considering an EU-wide youth mobility scheme and there will be no return to freedom of movement.”
The line on broadcast: “I’m not aware of any plans for any changes in that regard,” Education Minister Cat McKinnell told Times Radio this morning when asked about the claims.
Indeed ii: Playbook PM is aware of discussions in government about making specific school trips easier and the like — but not a full blown youth mobility scheme.
Still though … anything to to keep us all going during recess.
MORE FADE THAN GRADE: GCSE results illustrate stark educational inequalities across England, with the proportion of kids gaining grades 4 (equivalent to a millennial C) or above far higher in the south of England than the north — with the best results in London. Check out the fade on this map.
Top lines: Overall, 67.4 percent of students got 4s or above in England (down from 67.8 percent in 2023) compared with 82 percent in Northern Ireland (down from 86.6 percent) and a troubling 61.7 percent in Wales (down from 64.5 percent.)
School of promises: In a pooled clip, McKinnell said the government would boost access to opportunities across the nation, accepting it’s a “big task” but “one we are committed to delivering on.” Prime Minister Keir Starmer tweeted: “I know the power of education and opportunity. My government will make sure everyone’s path is determined by their talent, skills and ambition, not where you come from.”
exerciseI LIVE TO SURVEY: The Tom Tugendhat questionnaire to Conservative members about how CCHQ should be reformed (which is absolutely not a data-harvesting exercise) went live here. The results are expected to be published in September.
THE OTHER LEADERSHIP CONTEST … Scottish Conservative leadership candidates Liam Kerr and Jamie Greene this morning dropped out of the race and endorsed former rival Murdo Fraser. The pair appeared at a campaign launch for Fraser in Perth, during which he called on the other two remaining candidates to stand down and hand him a coronation.
Let’s bounce: In an appeal to fellow contenders Meghan Gallacher and Russell Findlay, Fraser said the group can go on “shouting at each other” for five months or “end it now.”
But but but: Findlay doesn’t sound too interested, telling the BBC’s David Wallace Lockhart: “Our members should decide the next leader. Not any small group of people at Holyrood.” He, alongside Gallacher and Fraser, received sufficient nominations to make the ballot.
Now it hots up: The first hustings kicks off on Saturday at 10 a.m. in Renfrew.
FOLLOWING THE MONEY: Josiah Mortimer from Byline Times crunched the amount of cashola political parties spent in 2023 versus the number of seats won in 2024, via the Electoral Commission accounts Playbook flagged this morning.
REFORM TO REFORM: Reform chair Zia Yusuf told GB News this afternoon that the Nigel Farage outfit will change its rules to allow members to pick its leader. “We of course understand members need to be given a democratic set of rights,” he told (who else? GB News.) Chris Hope asked him: “Will it allow members to remove the leader?” To which Yusuf responded: “Of course it will.” Clip here.
‘STUDENT, INFANTILE POLITICS’ LATEST: Former fringe Conservative MP and Boris-Johnson-til-I-die cheerleader Andrea Jenkyns took to social media to air some petty complaints about her successor. Playbook PM loves to see it.
HOW NOT TO SET UP A MINISTERIAL ZOOM: Chancellor Rachel Reeves was renamed in a Zoom call with Welsh reps. New Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan could do with improving her lighting too — and needs to take “new account” out of her Zoom name. See here.
TONIGHT IN CHICAGO: It’s the big one at the Democratic National Convention — with Kamala Harris set to headline tonight’s speeches at some point in the small hours to bring down the curtain.
What Harris will say: Our colleagues over at U.S. Playbook report that there are essentially three goals for Harris tonight — to introduce her biography and record to the public, to draw a contrast with Donald Trump, and to “connect her vision for the country with her patriotism.” The hope, obviously, will be for a barnstorming speech to continue the momentum which has greeted Harris’ entrance into the race and then ride it all the way to November’s election.
Which is … easier said than done. And, as Christopher Cadelago writes in this great piece for POLITICO, one of the challenges for Harris as she preps for the most important speech of her life is that she hasn’t really given a high-profile speech before to an audience — meaning tonight is a step into the unknown for the VP. 
And if you missed her running mate last night … POLITICO founder John Harris has this analysis on Tim Walz’ big moment. 
MEANWHILE IN TRUMP-LAND: The Republican nominee has apparently been promising Nigel Farage that he’ll visit his Clacton constituency, according to Farage pal Andy Wigmore. More via ITV here. 
IN BOTSWANA: The second largest diamond ever found was unearthed earlier. See the big rock via the Beeb here.
**A message from Google: Children today are growing up in a digital world, so giving them the tools and knowledge to make good decisions online is essential. Google’s Be Internet Legends programme helps children learn key online safety skills and offers fun interactive materials to help children be confident online explorers. Research by IPSOS Mori found that kids are twice as likely to show a better understanding of internet safety after taking part in the programme.The adventure-filled free online Interland game is also a great way to keep the little ones entertained on any of those rainy summer days, full of smart lessons like how to share with care, why being kind is cool and how to spot online scams. This September 12th, you’re invited to join parents, teachers and students for our annual Back to School assembly, in partnership with Parent Zone. Learn more at go/beinternetlegends.**
Ben Kentish at Drive (LBC, until 7 p.m.): Lib Dem MP Layla Moran … German Ambassador Miguel Berger.
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Education Minister Jacqui Smith … Labour Together boss Jonathan Ashworth … Former Biden chief of staff Susan Platt … Wandsworth Prison independent monitoring board Chair Matt Andrews.
Sky News Hour (5 p.m.): U.S. Trade Representative Katherin Tai … Former Harris speechwriter Dave Cavell … California Attorney General Rob Bonta.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Reform deputy leader Ben Habib.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Writer Flic Everett and HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Broadcaster Alex Andreou and former Tory MP Mary Macleod.
MORNING ENERGY: Energy regulator Ofgem announces the next bills price cap for October to December, at 7 a.m.
CLOWN COURT: Further morons appear in court after taking part in violent disorder in the wake of the Southport attack. The best one from the past few hours is this conspiracist tool sent to prison for 32 months.
ON THE LEADERSHIP CAMPAIGN TRAIL: Priti Patel heads to Scotland to meet Tories north of the border.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH:  It’s recess! Make the most of a quieter Westminster with a stroll around to check out the menus.
Speaking of lunch … the Standard’s Ethan Croft and Claudia Cockerell found a nutritionist to slag off the Keir Starmer diet of salad box and ridge-cut crisps. “He’ll get sleepy mid-afternoon and probably quite hungry,” she sighed.
NEW GIGS STILL TO COME: Conservative former SpAd Henry Newman, who has been dining out on Labour handing civil service roles to its political allies via his Whitehall Watch Substack, hears the appointment of a principal private secretary to the PM could be imminent. That’s the Party Marty role — or Bernard in Yes, Minister — for those not up with their Whitehall jargon.
SPOTTED: In the visa queue at the U.S. Embassy as we hurtle towards a U.S. election … the BBC’s Nick Watt and the Mirror’s Ash Cowburn.
SIMPLE QUESTIONS PLAYBOOK PM CAN’T GET ANSWERS TO: When will Boris Johnson start producing his paid-per-show GB News content?
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: My POLITICO colleague John Johnston wrote about how the Lib Dem conference could be the hot new political jamboree for lobbyists, in his London Influence newsletter.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Aug. 22, 1642 the English Civil War between parliamentarians and royalists kicked off.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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